How Profitable Are Candlestick Strategies in Currency Trading?
Some of the most popular trading strategies in forex markets involve the use of Japanese Candlestick charts. Given a specific pattern in candlestick formations, traders look to buy and sell currencies in anticipation of reversal or continuations in price. Yet testing the profitability of such concepts is easier said than done. Given that many of these formations are inherently qualitative in nature, it is difficult to develop a reliable quantitative approach with which to test the viability of such strategies. That being said, we will attempt to quantitatively identify specific candlestick patterns and backtest the profitability of trading on such candlestick signals. The first ones that we will analyze are morning star and evening star formations.
Candlestick Formations: Which do we choose?
Given a great number of different candlestick formations, it would be nearly impossible to gauge the overall profitability of all candlestick strategies in a single study. Instead, we will focus on specific reversal signals that we believe have intuitive value as it relates to market sentiment. In this particular case we will look at both the Morning Star and Evening Star formations as buy-and-sell signals.
A Morning Star formation is a bullish reversal signal for an overall downtrend. Given fairly consistent losses, we see a strongly negative full-bodied first candle. The second candle opens at or below the previous close, trading within a relatively narrow range with the high staying below the midpoint of the first candle. The third candle is strongly positive and closes above the midpoint of the first candle. This tells us that bearish sentiment is unable to push price below previous lows, and risks remain for a reversal in price trends.The Evening Star is effectively the opposite of a Morning Star, as price starts in an uptrend and the first candle is strongly positive. The second candle opens above or at the previous close, trading within a fairly narrow range and with its low above the previous bar's midpoint. The third candle is strongly negative and closes below the first candle's midpoint. This gives warning that bulls are unable to push price to new heights, and a strongly bearish candle hints at further downside potential through subsequent trade.
“Trading in the Forex market is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. Nothing in this presentation is a recommendation to buy or sell currencies and FXcharles is not liable for any loss or damage.”
